Spatial distribution of Tanzania’s population by age and sex: An analysis of 2022 census data

Abstract

This study examines the spatial distribution of Tanzania’s population by age and sex using the 2022 Population and Housing Census. It analyses regional and district patterns in population density, urbanisation, rural-urban balance, age structure and sex composition, supported by inequality indices and spatial statistical techniques. The census recorded 61,741,120 people, with an average national density of about 70 persons per km². However, this average mask sharp regional contrasts: Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar’s urban regions are highly concentrated, while Lindi, Katavi and other remote regions remain sparsely populated. About 65.1 percent of the population lives in rural areas, but urban growth is accelerating, especially around major economic centres. Tanzania also has a youthful demographic profile, with about 43 percent of the population below age 15, while the elderly population remains relatively small but unevenly distributed. The findings show moderate spatial inequality, reflected in a regional Gini coefficient of about 0.30 and a Hoover index of roughly 28 percent. Spatial autocorrelation results indicate significant clustering of population density, with high-density hotspots around Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Arusha-Kilimanjaro and coastal corridors, and low-density clusters in the south and west. Sex composition is broadly balanced across regions, although age structures vary. Overall, urbanisation, economic activity, agricultural potential and connectivity are closely associated with regional population concentration. The study recommends targeted infrastructure, service delivery and evidence-based regional planning to reduce spatial disparities and support inclusive development.