Uncertainty in hydrological modelling: A review

Abstract

Availability of hydrological data and various soft wares for developing models make easy way to answer frequently asked questions to hydrologists. A great deal of concentration has given to the development of models in the last decades. But the thorough study regarding uncertainty of simulations has not carried out in comparison with the development of models. Uncertainty in models emanates from input data, calibrated data, parameters and from the structure of models. The sources of uncertainty, cause of generation and how these can be dealt with are reviewed here. This also comprises a review about five different methods viz. Monte Carlo sampling, Bayesian approach, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, Bootstrap Approach and Machine learning methods which were applied in the estimation of the model and parameter uncertainty. This will indicate the comparison between the methods which were applied to measure the uncertainty of hydrological models and highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the methods in identifying the usefulness of the models. By the comparison of the methods the improvement of the model reliability, slackening of the prediction error of the hydrological models can be suggested. By a proper quantification of uncertainty of data applied for the building up and evaluation of models, model performance can be improved, cost can be reduced and unambiguous results can lead the proper water resources management.