Abstract
After the "One Belt, One Road" strategy was proposed, China's overseas port investment has developed rapidly. In order to help Chinese port companies reduce their investment risks, this article provides help and suggestions for Chinese companies’ overseas port investments by establishing a port investment confidence index system. This article has established a port investment confidence index system, covering four aspects: economic scale, external links, internal vitality and institutional quality. Then, through DS evidence theory, using the subjective weights obtained from the questionnaire survey and the objective weights calculated from the data obtained from each database query to evaluate some countries along the “Belt and Road” route to prove the rationality and operability of the indicator system designed in this article And provide advice and assistance for Chinese companies’ overseas port investment. Based on the subjective weights obtained in this article, Chinese companies are more inclined to invest in economies with better internal economic development and a sound institutional environment. By comparing the objective weights of income, this paper finds that when companies invest in economies with a higher degree of development, they pay more attention to the impact of the business environment of the economy when they invest in economies with a higher degree of development. Low-level economies will give priority to the profitability and development prospects of ports when investing.
Keywords: Overseas port investment, Index system, D-S evidence theory, Business environment.
Received: 13 August 2020 / Revised: 7 September 2020 / Accepted:1 December 2020/ Published: 18 December 2020
Contribution/ Originality
This article has established a port investment confidence index system, covering four aspects: economic scale, external links, internal vitality and institutional quality.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background & Significance
With the gradual implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy and the initial exploration of the market economy operation of relevant regional countries by the people in the past decade, more and more Chinese companies have implemented the "going out" strategy and invested in some "Belt and Road" strategies. Countries along the route. On the other hand, China has been a host country in international investment for a long time and lacks relevant experience in foreign investment as a home country. This has also objectively deepened the concerns of Chinese companies in the process of foreign investment. Based on the above considerations, this article will construct a port investment confidence index to serve the "going global" strategy of Chinese companies and provide reliable suggestions for Chinese companies' overseas port investment. At the same time, the leading role of the port itself in economic development can also be used to judge the development potential and development trend of an economy from a new perspective.
By consulting relevant literature, it is found that China's research on port industry investment confidence index is still in its infancy. Related index research also focuses on the cash flow and stability of the evaluation object itself. The perspectives and indicators of these studies have their limitations when used to evaluate port investment confidence: First, the port itself has considerable economic externalities. Therefore, it is incomplete to confine the discussion to the port itself; secondly, the port itself has considerable economic externalities. The amount of investment is relatively large and the return period is relatively long. Simply relying on the short-term rate of return to judge the prospects of investment has limitations. Again, countries along the “Belt and Road” have different levels of development and different systems and cultural environments. These factors It plays a vital role in the development of the economy, and because previous studies have limited the evaluation objects to domestic and ignored endogenous issues, in the process of evaluating port investment confidence, this article considers local business The environment is taken into consideration. Based on the above considerations, this article will comprehensively consider the current research status, characteristics of port assets, and Chinese perspectives to construct a "port investment confidence index".
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Research Status of Port Prosperity Index
The "prosperity index" is a tool used to measure cyclical fluctuations in the economy and industries. It is a professional research work to evaluate and monitor a certain industry and market through the prosperity index. Its research has been started since the beginning of the 20th century. It was not until 1909 that the Babson Statistical Company of the United States released the Babson Economic Activity Index. Only then did the world begin to conduct economic forecasting and investment planning through the more mature prosperity index.
In recent years, research on the prosperity index has been gradually launched in China. Dihong, Huazhong，Li, and Xiangyu (2003) analyzed the demand, supply, industrial policy, and price that affect the industry’s prosperity, and selected relevant indicators. Then, he used factor analysis to construct an industry prosperity index and analyzed the prosperity of the coal industry. Many scholars have constructed the prosperity index according to the characteristics of different industries and conducted analysis based on this. Xian-li and Yu (2003) studied the prosperity index of the steel industry. He selected a group of representative and sensitive economic indicators, selected a benchmark indicator, and then classified the indicators according to the peak and valley analysis method, and finally used the synthetic index method constructs the prosperity index of China's steel industry. The research team of Research Group (2008) used principal component analysis to compile a comprehensive prosperous index of China’s hotel industry based on supply factors, demand factors, production capacity, operating efficiency, and economic benefits. The above analyzed the development and changes of China's hotel industry in the past 20 years. Qian and Yifei (2012) used the improved diffusion index method to construct the prosperity index of the global dry bulk shipping market from the four aspects of supply, demand, price and cost of the dry bulk market, and further analyzed its the internal cause of change.
At present, China's research on the prosperity index of the port industry mainly consists of two parts: the port prosperity index of the Shanghai International Shipping Center and the monthly "Comments on the National Port Industry Prosperity Index" of the "China Port". The former mainly analyzes the operating conditions of ports in the Yangtze River Delta region, which mainly includes two parts: First, the situation of the entire port group in the Yangtze River Delta region, reflecting the operating status of the entire region. The second is the operating conditions of various ports in the Yangtze River Delta, which mainly include port operating data and financial data. It mainly reflects the current status of port operations through port container throughput index, port throughput index, and port foreign trade cargo throughput index, and reflects port financial status through port operating income index and port profit index. The "National Port Industry Prosperity Index Review" divides Chinese ports into six parts: the Bohai Rim, the Beibu Gulf, the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the Yangtze River Delta, the west bank of the Straits and the Pearl River Delta. Then count their cargo throughput index, foreign trade throughput index, container throughput index, domestic trade bulk cargo price index and foreign trade bulk cargo price index (the index is based on the data of a certain month as 100), and finally the average Value to measure the prosperity index of the national port industry. It can be seen that the former's prosperity index considers more factors, but the latter involves a larger range. Both reflect the changes in the port’s operating conditions, but the underlying reasons for their changes cannot be analyzed, and the description of their prosperity index requires a large amount of and continuous data. For some with low statistical levels and less data" Ports of countries along the Belt and Road are not applicable.
2.2. Research Status of Business Environment Index
Wenxin (2015) regards the business environment as the laws and regulations used by the economy to promote and restrict business activities. A good business environment cannot be separated from good government supervision and a set of efficient and low-cost procedures. The research not only considered the perfection of social laws and regulations, but also considered the government's ability to perform functions. His research focuses on the "system" aspect of the business environment. Zhiqiang and Xiahai (2012) analyzed the relationship between the business environment and economic development based on the data on the business environment of 30 major cities in China. The research results show that an excellent urban business environment has an obvious promotion effect on urban economic development; even if other potential factors affecting economic development are controlled, the business environment’s impact on economic development is still very significant and very stable.
Some scholars have studied the relationship between the business environment and FDI. Tong (2015) conducted an empirical study on the relationship between China's business environment and FDI inflows on the basis of statistical data analysis. Its empirical research and analysis show that the registered property and cross-border trade in the business environment indicator system have a significant role in promoting FDI inflows. Later, from the perspectives of the rule of law and internationalization of the business environment, it put forward relevant suggestions for improving China’s business environment. Suggest. Yuling (2016) studied the impact of the business environment of the BRICS countries on foreign direct investment. Based on the analysis of the "Business Environment Report", her research considered the common effect of various indicators on the business environment. The results It shows that the improvement of the business environment is of great help to the accumulation of FDI stock in the economy, but it will not increase the FDI flow in a short time.
Some scholars have conducted research on how to improve the convenience of business environment. Dong (2014) pointed out that the index of business environment convenience is essentially to require the government to implement efficient supervision, not to give up supervision to provide maximum freedom and convenience. This is consistent with the description of the transformation of government functions in the Doing Business report. Zhiqiang and Xiahai (2012) starts from the protection of investors, the difficulty of starting a business, and the transparency of the government, and establishes a panel data model with the FDI flow of the host country as an independent variable to evaluate the convenience of business in the economy. Evaluation. Finally, it is concluded that the degree of business facilitation is important for enhancing international image, deepening international cooperation, and increasing FDI flows.
In foreign countries, some scholars have conducted research on the business environment for a long time. The American scholar Wenxin (2015) proposed the "grading scale method" for evaluating the country's business environment as early as 1969, and evaluated the business environment from eight aspects. Later, on the basis of his research, there are more and more researches on the business environment in the world. Djankov, Porta, and Lopez-de-Silane (2002) created a dummy variable for the 20 most regulated economies and artificially created a ranking system to estimate business environment data. The research results show that a lower level of regulation is more conducive to stimulating economic growth, but Djankovetal The dummy variables used reduce the reliability of data analysis, and he generalizes all countries without considering the huge differences between countries. Djankov., La, and Lopezdesilanes (2002) used a cross-sectional analysis of fixed effects to focus on the overall impact and found that countries with a higher ranking in the business environment in 2004 had a significant relationship with economic growth. Busse and Groizard (2008) uses a similar method to analyze the relationship between business environment indicators and gross domestic product.
At the same time, some scholars analyze the impact of the differences in the business environment faced by enterprises. Pullin (2003) analyzed the external environment of the development of enterprises in various regions of Germany by comparing the external environment such as government policies, wage levels and regional specialization in different regions of Germany, and studied the effects of different external environments on enterprises in the same country. The impact of normal business activities. Jeong, Cho, and Jones (2012) pointed out that the overall business environment faced by an enterprise is composed of different parts, and they individually affect the business activities of the enterprise at different stages of enterprise development. To a certain extent, the external environment faced by an enterprise has a greater impact on the enterprise in the long run than its various internal factors.
3. MODELING
3.1. Construction of Port Investment Confidence Index Index System
This article will construct a port investment confidence index from two aspects of port prosperity and business environment. Among them, the port boom will take into account the development prospects of the host country’s port industry and its investment potential. As for the business environment, it will take into account the difficulty for Chinese companies to conduct business in the host country. Therefore, the port investment confidence index in this article should include at least the following four aspects (As shown in Figure 1):
Figure-1. Main content of port investment confidence.
3.1.1. Economy Size
The development of the port is inseparable from the support of its hinterland. Regional development will increase the demand for port transportation, and this is one of the important driving forces for port development. The countries along the “Maritime Silk Road” are mostly coastal countries. For most countries, the degree of national development restricts the development of their port industry. For other countries at a higher level of development, their economic development is bound to the port puts forward higher requirements and at the same time provides a large amount of goods for the port. Therefore, when analyzing the development prospects of ports, the size of the economy is an influencing factor that must be taken into consideration.
3.1.2. External Link
As an important node of the transportation network, the extent of its function is closely related to the resource situation of the economy in which it is located, the degree of economic development and the degree of external trade development. Therefore, this article attempts to use external link indicators to assess the degree of closeness of economic links with the outside world. Starting from the problems analyzed in this article, this article analyzes the connection between transportation and economy. The closer the link between the economy and the outside world, the less resistance Chinese companies that enter the economy as foreign companies will face.
3.1.3. Internal Vitality
Port investment is a project with huge investment and long return period, so it is necessary to ensure the long-term development of investment objectives. The vigorous vitality means that the economy has the thrust of development, but also has the initiative to seek development, which means that the local economy is in a stable rising period, and for the port industry, this period is the development of business and expansion. Good time for the market. And a booming, vibrant economy will also make investors more optimistic about local development, thereby reducing investment worries. This factor is particularly important in the process of judging the status of ports in developing countries along the “Belt and Road”.
3.1.4. Institutional Quality
Analyzing the quality of the system will also enable this article to understand the local system and market development, and help investors further analyze the local development prospects and the difficulty of port operations. The quality of the system mainly includes two aspects.
Table-1. Port investment confidence index index system.
| Level 2 indicators | Level 3 indicators | Statistical approaches |
| Economy size | GDP θ11 | Related yearbooks |
| Total population θ12 | Related yearbooks | |
| Container terminal throughput θ21 | World Bank Database | |
| Net foreign direct investment inflow θ22 | World Bank Database | |
| External link | Total merchandise imports and exports θ23 | World Bank Database |
| Per capita retail sales of consumer goods θ31 | World Bank Database | |
| Internal vitality | Total number of listed companies θ32 | World Bank Database |
| Number of patent applications θ33 | World Bank Database | |
| Effective labor supply θ34 | World Bank Database | |
| Starting a business θ41 | Time, cost (business environment report) | |
| institutional quality | Apply for building permit θ42 | Time, cost, construction quality control index (business environment report) |
| Geting power θ43 | Power supply reliability, electricity price (business environment report) | |
| Registered property θ44 | Time, cost, land management quality (business environment report) | |
| Protect Investors θ45 | Dispute Mediation Index, Shareholder Governance Index, Minority Investor Protection Index (Business Environment Report) | |
| Taxes θ46 | Number of tax payments, total tax rate (Business Environment Report) | |
| Cross-border trade θ47 | Import and export time and cost, domestic transportation cost and time (Business Environment Report) | |
| Execution of the contract θ48 | Time, cost, recovery rate, strength of the bankruptcy framework (Business Environment Report) | |
| Bankruptcy θ49 |
On the one hand, it is the degree of perfection of the system. After all, "there is a law to follow" is the foundation of a region's system construction, and a region with sound laws must have fewer investment risks than other regions. On the other hand, it is the implementation of laws and regulations, which include the performance of contracts, the court’s litigation cycle, etc., reflecting the efficiency of the operation of a regional system, and it can also make a detailed analysis of the problems that may be encountered in port operations. , In order to estimate the difficulty of port operations.
3.2. Index Evaluation Model Based on D-S Evidence Theory
Evidence is the basis of D-S evidence theory. In this article, the evidence that needs to be substituted into the DS evidence theory is the weight obtained by different methods. In order to take into account the basic situation of Chinese enterprises and the objective conditions of each economy, this article will adopt the weight obtained by subjective weighting method (The subjective weight) and the weight obtained by the objective weighting method (objective weight) are each used as evidence for evaluation. This article will use AHP method and entropy method to get the evidence used. After substituting the obtained evidence into the D-S evidence theory for analysis, the final evaluation result is obtained.
3.2.1. Calculation of Subjective Weight
This weight is calculated by the AHP method.
1. Construct a hierarchical analysis framework model. The port investment confidence index index system constructed in this paper is shown in Table 1. The indicators are divided into target level, criterion level and factor level. The target level is the purpose of decision-making, that is, the evaluation of port investment confidence. The standard level is the main factor affecting port investment confidence. The factor layer is the subdivision factor that affects the main factor.
2. Construct a judgment matrix. In the constructed index system, both the criterion layer and the factor layer contain multiple factors. In order to confirm the importance of these factors, a judgment matrix needs to be constructed. Through the questionnaire survey, the relative importance of the two indicators of the same level and the same superior index to the superior index is constructed to construct a judgment matrix, namely:
Then look up the table to obtain the average random consistency index RI corresponding to the n-th order judgment matrix. If CI/RI<0.1, the judgment matrix is considered acceptable and the result is credible. If CI/RI>0.1, it is necessary to adjust the judgment matrix appropriately and redistribute the weight of each indicator until it passes the consistency test.
3.2.2. Calculation of Objective Weight
The objective weights used in this article are calculated using the entropy method. Taking the research objectives analyzed in this article as an example, the specific calculation steps are as follows.
First, use the min-max method to standardize the indicators to eliminate the dimensional difference of the grid indicators. The indicators involved in this article are all positive indicators, so the formula is as follows:
3.2.3. Application of D-S Evidence Theory
Then the evidence processing in this article based on the D-S evidence theory is mainly divided into the following steps:
1. Construct an identification framework Q,and transform the research into the research of collections.
2. Establish the initial distribution of the reliability of the proposition, that is, analyze the evidence based on the evidence to determine the degree of support for each proposition.
3.Synthesize existing evidence, construct multiple trust functions, then obtain the fused trust function through calculation, and then make decisions based on the fused trust function.
In this process, the trust function and likelihood function of the evidence theory show the restriction on the trust degree of the proposition.
4. CASE STUDY
4.1. Selection of Research Objectives
The first category of countries includes Israel, Turkey, Greece, Singapore, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Croatia, the United Arab Emirates and Malaysia. These countries all have a better economic foundation, a higher standard of living of their residents, and a more complete legal system. Among the research objects of this article, they belong to the more developed countries. The second category includes the Islamic Republic of Iran, South Africa, Russia, and India , Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Kenya, Arab Republic of Egypt. When categorizing the research objectives in this article, the average per capita GDP of China in five years is used as the basis. However, when considering Russia, although its average per capita GDP is higher than that of China, due to its vast territory and uneven development, its per capita GDP Areas with higher GDP are concentrated in areas with rich oil and gas resources, while the per capita GDP on the east and west sides suitable for port investment is lower. Therefore, this article believes that it is more reasonable to include them in the second category of countries for consideration. Such countries are underdeveloped countries among the research objects, and their development has shortcomings, but they all have certain development prospects. Take India and Russia as examples. India has a huge population base and rapid economic and technological growth, but its various systems still need to be improved. For Russia, it has a sound industrial system and rich natural resources, but its light industry is not developed, and its high latitude also limits the development of local ports. Therefore, they are included in the second category of countries.
4.2. Data Collection
4.2.1. Questionnaire
This paper uses the AHP method to confirm the required subjective weights. Therefore, the questionnaires were sent to relevant experts via the Internet. Afterwards, 26 questionnaires were collected and 3 invalid questionnaires were screened out. Finally, the subjective weights of this paper were derived from 23 valid questionnaires. See the appendix for the details of the questionnaire. All respondents responded via mobile phones. Among them, 12 were from Beijing, 10 were from Guangzhou, and one was from Shanghai.
4.2.2. "Global Business Environment Report"
The data on the business environment indicators involved in this article are all from the "Global Business Environment Report". The data in the report are derived from the perspective of the enterprise, which is consistent with the starting point of this article. Taking the indicator of "starting a business" as an example, researchers put virtual enterprises of the same scale and conditions into each economy, and obtained the number of procedures required to start a business, the time and cost and other related factors, and finally summarized the data. Obtain the frontier distance score of "starting a business" in each economy. On the other hand, the statistical methods of the Global Business Environment Report have undergone many changes. It is not meaningful to directly compare historical data. However, this article focuses on the horizontal comparison between countries in the same year, and the result obtained is essentially the frontier distance score of each country in the same year, so it is still meaningful to compare the final results.
4.2.3. World Bank Database
The indicators in this article cover a wide range of aspects, covering transportation, scientific research, economy and other aspects. At the same time, the research objects are various economies. Therefore, the data in the World Bank database is exactly what this article needs. Most of the data in the World Bank database are summarized by country and region, and cover all aspects. Therefore, the data used in the indicators such as "Total Import and Export of Commodities", "Number of Resident Patent Applications" and "Number of Listed Companies" mentioned in this article are all From the World Bank database. However, when selecting research targets in this article, it is found that there are still missing data in some countries, which has become one of the limitations of the research targets in this article.
4.3. Calculation of Subjective Weight
This article uses the AHP1-9 scale method, and the meaning of the specific scale is shown in Table 2.
| Scaling | Meaning |
| 1 | Comparing the two factors, they have the same importance |
| 3 | Comparing two factors, one factor is slightly more important than the other |
| 5 | Comparing two factors, one factor is obviously more important than the other |
| 7 | Comparing two factors, one factor is more important than the other |
| 9 | Comparing two factors, one factor is absolutely more important than the other |
| 2,4,6,8 | The median value of the above adjacent judgment |
If the comparison between index B1 and index B2 is judged as a, then the judgment between index B2 and index B1 is 1/a.
Based on the above principles, the "Port Investment Confidence Index Expert Questionnaire" was produced and distributed, the 26 questionnaires obtained were statistically summarized, 3 invalid questionnaires were eliminated, and the data of the remaining 23 questionnaires were sorted to obtain indicators at all levels. Judgment matrix, use excel to calculate, and adjust the judgment matrix to meet the consistency test of CR=CI/RI<0.1（As shown in Table-3.
Table-3. Random fluctuation consistency index.
Order |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
RI |
0 |
0 |
0.58 |
0.9 |
1.12 |
1.24 |
1.32 |
1.41 |
1.45 |
4.3.1. Level 2 Indicators
Table-4. Judgment Matrix of Level 2 indicators.
| Index | Economic scale |
External links |
Internal vitality |
Institutional quality |
Weights |
| Economic scale | 1 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
1/2 |
0.12 |
| External links | 2 |
1 |
1/3 |
1/2 |
0.17 |
| Internal vitality | 3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0.39 |
| Institutional quality | 2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0.32 |
The judgment matrix of the secondary index is shown in Table 4, CR=0.03404, which passed the consistency test.
4.3.2. Economic Scale Index
Table-5. Economic scale index judgment matrix.
| Index | GDP |
Total Population |
Weights |
| GDP | 1 |
4.6 |
0.82 |
| Total Population | 2/9 |
1 |
0.18 |
The economic scale indicator judgment matrix is shown in Table 5, CR=0, which passes the consistency test.
4.3.3. External Link Indicators
Table-6. External link indicator judgment matrix.
| Index | Container terminal throughput |
Total merchandise imports and exports |
Foreign Direct Investment |
Weights |
| Container terminal throughput | 1 |
1 |
1 |
0.333 |
| Total merchandise imports and exports | 1 |
1 |
1 |
0.333 |
| Foreign Direct Investment | 1 |
1 |
1 |
0.333 |
Note: CR=0, passing the consistency test.
4.3.4. Internal Vitality Index
Table-7. Internal vitality index judgment matrix.
| Index | Social retail |
Patents |
Number of listed companies |
Labor Supply |
Weights |
| Social retail | 1 |
2 |
1/3 |
5 |
0.270 |
| Patents | 1/2 |
1 |
1/3 |
3 |
0.185 |
| Number of listed companies | 3 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
0.455 |
| Labor Supply | 1/5 |
1/3 |
1/5 |
1 |
0.090 |
Note: CR=0.0828, which passed the consistency test.
4.3.5. Institutional Quality Index
Table-8. Institutional quality index judgment matrix.
Note: CR=0.09753, which passed the consistency test.
Each group of indicators has passed the consistency test, and finally the subjective weight is calculated by formula (3-2), formula (3-3) and formula (3-4).
The subjective weights finally obtained by the AHP method are shown in Table 9.
Table-9. List of Subjective Weights of Port Investment Confidence Inde.
| Level two indicators | weight |
Level three indicators | Weight |
|
| Economic scale |
0.12 |
GDP Total Population |
0.82 0.18 |
|
| Container terminal throughput | 0.333 |
|||
| External links | 0.17 |
Total merchandise imports and exports | 0.333 |
|
| Foreign Direct Investment | 0.333 |
|||
| Social retail | 0.270 |
|||
| Internal vitality | 0.39 |
Patents | 0.185 |
|
| Number of listed companies | 0.455 |
|||
| Labor supply | 0.090 |
|||
| Start a business | 0.078 |
|||
| Apply for building permit | 0.126 |
|||
| Registered property | 0.071 |
|||
| Protect Investors | 0.291 |
|||
| Institutional quality | 0.32 |
Taxes | 0.199 |
|
| Cross-border trade | 0.056 |
|||
| Execution of the contract | 0.122 |
|||
| Bankruptcy | 0.024 |
|||
| Get power | 0.032 |
|||
4.4. Calculation of Objective Weight
4.4.1. Sample Data Processing
The data used in this section mainly comes from the World Bank database and the Global Business Environment Report.
First, standardize the original data according to formula (3-7), and the processed data is shown in Table 10 and Table 11.
4.4.2. Confirm Indicator Weight
Substituting the normalized data of the first type of country in 2016 and the second type of country data into the formulas (3-8), (3-9), (3-10) and (3-11) to get the 2016 two types The entropy value and objective weight of each national indicator.
In this paper, the results obtained by using the entropy method for 2016 data of various countries are shown in Table 12.
Table-10. Table of Standardization Processing of Indicator Data in the Category I of Countries in 2016.
Table 11. Table of standardization processing of indicator data in the second group of countries in 2016.
Table-12. Entropy and objective weight based on entropy method in 2016.
| Index | Entropy of Category I countries |
The objective weight of Category I countries |
Entropy of Category II countries |
The objective weight of Category II countries |
|||
| GDP | 0.8619 |
0.0432 |
0.7503 |
0.0672 |
|||
| Total Population | 0.6334 |
0.1146 |
0.5852 |
0.1116 |
|||
| Container terminal throughput | 0.7919 |
0.0650 |
0.8618 |
0.0372 |
|||
| Total merchandise imports and exports |
0.8185 |
0.0567 |
0.7861 |
0.0575 |
|||
| Foreign Direct Investment | 0.6418 |
0.1120 |
0.6235 |
0.1013 |
|||
| Per capita retail sales of consumer goods | 0.8373 |
0.0508 |
0.8160 |
0.0495 |
|||
| Patents | 0.7476 |
0.0789 |
0.6019 |
0.1071 |
|||
| Number of listed companies | 0.7494 |
0.0783 |
0.5424 |
0.1231 |
|||
| Labor supply | 0.7124 |
0.0899 |
0.6025 |
0.1069 |
|||
| Start a business | 0.9276 |
0.0226 |
0.9088 |
0.0245 |
|||
| Handle construction | 0.9006 |
0.0311 |
0.9458 |
0.0146 |
|||
| Get power | 0.7948 |
0.0641 |
0.9318 |
0.0184 |
|||
| Registered property | 0.8920 |
0.0338 |
0.8911 |
0.0293 |
|||
| Protect Investors | 0.9150 |
0.0266 |
0.9268 |
0.0197 |
|||
| Taxes | 0.8150 |
0.0578 |
0.8682 |
0.0355 |
|||
| Cross-border trade | 0.9351 |
0.0203 |
0.9064 |
0.0252 |
|||
| Execution of the contract | 0.8930 |
0.0334 |
0.8565 |
0.0386 |
|||
| Bankruptcy | 0.9330 |
0.0209 |
0.8778 |
0.0329 |
|||
Table-13. List of objective weights of the Category I of countries over the years.
| The objective weight of Category I countries | 2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
Mean |
| GDP | 0.0444 |
0.0455 |
0.0434 |
0.0452 |
0.0432 |
0.0444 |
| Total Population | 0.1153 |
0.1170 |
0.1162 |
0.1199 |
0.1146 |
0.1166 |
| Container terminal throughput | 0.0684 |
0.0688 |
0.0687 |
0.0682 |
0.0650 |
0.0678 |
| Total merchandise imports and exports | 0.0548 |
0.0558 |
0.0552 |
0.0578 |
0.0567 |
0.0561 |
| Foreign Direct Investment | 0.0977 |
0.0936 |
0.1389 |
0.1135 |
0.1120 |
0.1111 |
| Per capita retail sales of consumer goods | 0.0444 |
0.0477 |
0.0505 |
0.0503 |
0.0508 |
0.0487 |
| Patents | 0.0794 |
0.0628 |
0.0660 |
0.0757 |
0.0789 |
0.0725 |
| Number of listed companies | 0.0721 |
0.0806 |
0.0804 |
0.0755 |
0.0783 |
0.0774 |
| Labor supply | 0.0870 |
0.0890 |
0.0900 |
0.0941 |
0.0899 |
0.0900 |
| Start a business | 0.0278 |
0.0295 |
0.0224 |
0.0236 |
0.0226 |
0.0252 |
| Handle construction | 0.0202 |
0.0204 |
0.0186 |
0.0257 |
0.0311 |
0.0232 |
| Get power | 0.0386 |
0.0400 |
0.0411 |
0.0671 |
0.0641 |
0.0502 |
| Registered property | 0.0338 |
0.0265 |
0.0271 |
0.0358 |
0.0338 |
0.0314 |
| Protect Investors | 0.0396 |
0.0459 |
0.0302 |
0.0305 |
0.0266 |
0.0346 |
| Taxes | 0.0422 |
0.0465 |
0.0359 |
0.0427 |
0.0578 |
0.0450 |
| Cross-border trade | 0.0484 |
0.0486 |
0.0560 |
0.0210 |
0.0203 |
0.0389 |
| Execution of the contract | 0.0552 |
0.0505 |
0.0382 |
0.0323 |
0.0334 |
0.0419 |
| Bankruptcy | 0.0308 |
0.0313 |
0.0211 |
0.0210 |
0.0209 |
0.0250 |
Table-14. List of objective weights of the Category II of countries over the years.
| The objective weight of Category II countries | 2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
Mean |
| GDP | 0.0669 |
0.0682 |
0.0673 |
0.0614 |
0.0672 |
0.0662 |
| Total Population | 0.1156 |
0.1117 |
0.1094 |
0.1067 |
0.1116 |
0.1110 |
| Container terminal throughput | 0.0335 |
0.0333 |
0.0329 |
0.0354 |
0.0372 |
0.0345 |
| Total merchandise imports and exports | 0.0641 |
0.0640 |
0.0622 |
0.0573 |
0.0575 |
0.0610 |
| Foreign Direct Investment | 0.0904 |
0.0922 |
0.0813 |
0.0945 |
0.1013 |
0.0920 |
| Per capita retail sales of consumer goods | 0.0592 |
0.0593 |
0.0560 |
0.0510 |
0.0495 |
0.0550 |
| Patents | 0.1324 |
0.1237 |
0.1159 |
0.1157 |
0.1071 |
0.1190 |
| Number of listed companies | 0.1195 |
0.1180 |
0.1182 |
0.1180 |
0.1231 |
0.1193 |
| Labor supply | 0.1093 |
0.1066 |
0.1049 |
0.1025 |
0.1069 |
0.1060 |
| Start a business | 0.0190 |
0.0175 |
0.0283 |
0.0260 |
0.0245 |
0.0231 |
| Handle construction | 0.0204 |
0.0162 |
0.0143 |
0.0133 |
0.0146 |
0.0158 |
| Get power | 0.0160 |
0.0158 |
0.0331 |
0.0282 |
0.0184 |
0.0223 |
| Registered property | 0.0168 |
0.0157 |
0.0231 |
0.0290 |
0.0293 |
0.0228 |
| Protect Investors | 0.0256 |
0.0366 |
0.0217 |
0.0196 |
0.0197 |
0.0246 |
| Taxes | 0.0169 |
0.0257 |
0.0275 |
0.0475 |
0.0355 |
0.0306 |
| Cross-border trade | 0.0287 |
0.0268 |
0.0408 |
0.0240 |
0.0252 |
0.0291 |
| Execution of the contract | 0.0315 |
0.0329 |
0.0274 |
0.0357 |
0.0386 |
0.0332 |
| Bankruptcy | 0.0344 |
0.0358 |
0.0357 |
0.0339 |
0.0329 |
0.0345 |
Table-15. Overview of the relevant data of Israel in 2016.
| Index | Basic data |
Standardized data |
Subjective weight |
Objective weight |
| GDP (100 million US dollars) | 3177.4578 |
0.3285 |
0.0993 |
0.0432 |
| Total population (ten thousand) | 854.71 |
0.0581 |
0.0216 |
0.1146 |
| Container terminal throughput (TEU) | 2450400 |
0.0716 |
0.0570 |
0.0650 |
| Total import and export of goods (100 million US dollars) | 1289.955 |
0.1569 |
0.0570 |
0.0567 |
| Foreign Direct Investment (USD) | 11902600000 |
0.1681 |
0.0570 |
0.1120 |
| Per capita social consumption average retail sales (USD) | 19809.43678 |
0.8578 |
0.1054 |
0.0508 |
| Patents (a) | 1,300 |
0.2057 |
0.0721 |
0.0789 |
| Number of listed companies (a) | 427 |
0.3932 |
0.1774 |
0.0783 |
| Labor supply (a) | 4,017,542 |
0.0735 |
0.0349 |
0.0899 |
| Start a business | 90.55 |
0.6320 |
0.0248 |
0.0226 |
| Apply for building permit | 71.54 |
0.3684 |
0.0400 |
0.0311 |
| Get power | 75.21 |
0.0000 |
0.0101 |
0.0641 |
| Registered property | 73.33 |
0.0718 |
0.0228 |
0.0338 |
| Protect Investors | 70.01 |
0.7220 |
0.0927 |
0.0266 |
| Taxes | 82.85 |
0.0000 |
0.0633 |
0.0578 |
| Cross-border trade | 57.93 |
0.6673 |
0.0180 |
0.0203 |
| Execution of the contract | 72.47 |
0.2316 |
0.0389 |
0.0334 |
| Bankruptcy | 52.84 |
0.9752 |
0.0078 |
0.0209 |
4.5. Evidence Fusion
There are three types of data involved in the final calculation of evidence fusion based on D-S evidence theory.
- It is the subjective weight obtained through the questionnaire. This part of the data comes from the subjective judgments of relevant experts and has a certain degree of subjectivity, but it also reflects some of the preferences of Chinese investors and the relevant practitioners encountered in the actual investment process Case.
- It is the objective weight obtained through the entropy method. This part of the data comes from the basic data of various countries and is objective.
- It is the score of each indicator of each country. This part of the data uses the data standardized in the previous section. It can well reflect the differences between countries, but the disadvantage is that if you try to substitute new countries into the analysis, additional calculations will be added . The closer its value is to 0, it indicates that the country is at the end of the research target on this indicator. The closer its value is to 1, it indicates that the country is at the forefront of the research goals in this indicator.
This article briefly describes the calculation steps using 2016 Israel as an example (Shown in Table 15）.
First, the comprehensive probability value of the indicator needs to be calculated. Taking the indicator "economic scale" as an example, the comprehensive probability value obtained by subjective weight is called the subjective comprehensive probability value, and the probability value obtained by objective weight is called the objective comprehensive probability value. The subjective comprehensive probability value is the product of the corresponding subjective weight and standardized data, namely:
of the secondary index assignment can be determined by the trust function and the likelihood function.
Through the same method, the trust function and likelihood function of each secondary index based on objective weight can be obtained.
Next is evidence fusion, which combines the two sets of weights with differences, and finally obtains a more reliable result. The specific calculation is as follows：
Table-16. 2016 Israeli integration results.
Economic scale |
External links |
Internal vitality |
Institutional quality |
|
Fusion result |
0.0421 |
0.0409 |
0.2272 |
0.1752 |
Then, according to the synthesis rules of DS evidence theory, namely formulas (3-16), (3-17), substituting the subjective weights, objective weights and standardized 2016 data of each country in this article, the port investment confidence index of each country is obtained The final results are shown in Table 17 and Table 18.
Table-17. 2016 Evaluation Results of the Port Investment Confidence Index of the Category I Countries.
| Category I countries | Israel |
Turkey |
Greece |
Singapore |
New Zealand |
Saudi Arabia |
Croatia |
UAE |
Malaysia |
| Economic scale | 0.0421 |
0.1413 |
0.0189 |
0.0115 |
0.0076 |
0.0840 |
0.0000 |
0.0216 |
0.0421 |
| External links | 0.0409 |
0.0804 |
0.0216 |
0.2623 |
0.0119 |
0.0833 |
0.0000 |
0.1295 |
0.1253 |
| Internal vitality | 0.2272 |
0.2854 |
0.1298 |
0.1699 |
0.1463 |
0.0888 |
0.0336 |
0.1215 |
0.2398 |
| Institutional quality | 0.1752 |
0.1800 |
0.1709 |
0.3537 |
0.4175 |
0.1044 |
0.2295 |
0.3586 |
0.2873 |
| Total score | 0.4854 |
0.6870 |
0.3412 |
0.7974 |
0.5833 |
0.3605 |
0.2631 |
0.6312 |
0.6944 |
Table-18. 2016 Evaluation Results of the Port Investment Confidence Index of the Category II Countries.
| Category II countries | Iran |
Russia |
South Africa |
India |
Indonesia |
Pakistan |
Sri Lanka |
Thailand |
Kenya |
Egypt |
| Economic scale | 0.0160 |
0.0353 |
0.0088 |
0.1347 |
0.0448 |
0.0223 |
0.0004 |
0.0124 |
0.0024 |
0.0150 |
| External links | 0.0314 |
0.1419 |
0.0463 |
0.2308 |
0.1246 |
0.0253 |
0.0345 |
0.1048 |
0.0000 |
0.0739 |
| Internal vitality | 0.1478 |
0.2448 |
0.1189 |
0.3715 |
0.0831 |
0.0401 |
0.0575 |
0.0835 |
0.0025 |
0.0547 |
| Institutional quality | 0.1905 |
0.3299 |
0.3198 |
0.0972 |
0.2177 |
0.1687 |
0.2292 |
0.3549 |
0.2290 |
0.1799 |
| Total score | 0.3857 |
0.7520 |
0.4939 |
0.8341 |
0.4703 |
0.2564 |
0.3216 |
0.5556 |
0.2339 |
0.3236 |
Table-19. 182012-2016 national port investment confidence index.
| Category I countries | 2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
| Israel | 0.5075 |
0.5031 |
0.4814 |
0.4774 |
0.4854 |
| Turkey | 0.6530 |
0.6428 |
0.6604 |
0.7182 |
0.6870 |
| Greece | 0.3059 |
0.3217 |
0.3541 |
0.3469 |
0.3412 |
| Singapore | 0.8310 |
0.8268 |
0.8203 |
0.8121 |
0.7974 |
| New Zealand | 0.5955 |
0.5894 |
0.5566 |
0.5729 |
0.5833 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.4868 |
0.5002 |
0.4477 |
0.4327 |
0.3605 |
| Croatia | 0.2066 |
0.1816 |
0.2372 |
0.2583 |
0.2631 |
| UAE | 0.5538 |
0.5731 |
0.5800 |
0.6091 |
0.6312 |
| Malaysia | 0.6984 |
0.7035 |
0.6989 |
0.7141 |
0.6944 |
| Category II countries | 2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
| Iran | 0.4047 |
0.3791 |
0.3851 |
0.3787 |
0.3857 |
| Russia | 0.7378 |
0.7386 |
0.7538 |
0.7180 |
0.7520 |
| South Africa | 0.5219 |
0.5372 |
0.5276 |
0.4882 |
0.4939 |
| India | 0.7762 |
0.7634 |
0.8221 |
0.8159 |
0.8341 |
| Indonesia | 0.4989 |
0.4935 |
0.5218 |
0.4690 |
0.4703 |
| Pakistan | 0.3135 |
0.2966 |
0.3242 |
0.2694 |
0.2564 |
| Sri Lanka | 0.3128 |
0.3216 |
0.3353 |
0.2949 |
0.3216 |
| Thailand | 0.5877 |
0.5914 |
0.5849 |
0.5753 |
0.5556 |
| Kenya | 0.2390 |
0.2148 |
0.2028 |
0.2238 |
0.2339 |
| Egypt | 0.3464 |
0.3210 |
0.3611 |
0.3194 |
0.3236 |
4.6. Evaluation Result Analysis
From the evaluation results, in addition to the economic scale indicators, there are some indicators in the index system established in this article that have a certain relationship with the size of the country, such as the total import and export volume of goods, labor supply, etc. Therefore, in the evaluation of this article, the economy Countries with large scale and large potential market have certain advantages, which is consistent with the considerations in this article when constructing the indicator system. On the other hand, countries with a better economic foundation and rapid economic development will also be better evaluated, and the quality of the final business environment will also affect the final evaluation of the economy.
5. THE CONCLUSION
At present, after five years of improvement and development of my country’s “One Belt, One Road” policy, it has become an important part of my country’s opening-up process and has also driven the development of my country’s foreign investment. In this context, according to incomplete statistics, my country's current overseas port investment exceeds 80 billion, with investment targets all over the world. In the process of selecting investment objectives, Chinese investors will not only be affected by their own experience and knowledge, but will also be exposed to various objective data from various countries. If these information can be effectively and comprehensively considered, they will definitely be China's overseas port investment has helped a lot. Therefore, this paper constructs a port investment confidence index from two aspects of port prosperity and business environment through analysis of related research, and then conducts evaluation and analysis through D-S evidence theory. This paper uses the AHP method to collect data through questionnaires to construct subjective weights, and then collects historical data from various countries to construct objective weights using entropy weighting method. Most of the data used comes from the World Bank database and the Global Business Environment Report. Later, on this basis, the D-S evidence theory is used to evaluate the port investment confidence index of various countries, which not only takes into account the subjective wishes of Chinese investors, but also considers the real situation, while avoiding the shortcomings of subjective and objective empowerment.
Funding: This study received no specific financial support. |
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. |
Acknowledgement: All authors contributed equally to the conception and design of the study. |
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