Another Look at the Sarima Modelling of the Number of Dengue Cases in Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Authors

  • Ette Harrison Etuk Department of Mathematics/Computer Science Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt, Nigeria
  • Nathaniel Ojekudo Department of Computer Science, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Abstract

Martinez, et al. [1] analysed monthly numbers of dengue cases as reported in Campinas, southeast Brazil from 1998 to 2008, by SARIMA methods. Assuming X is the original series, they analysed the logarithm of X + 1. The models they proposed and compared are of orders (2,1,2)x(1,1,1)12, (2,1,1)x(1,1,1)12, (1,1,2)x(1,1,1)12, (1,1,1)x(1,1,1)12, (2,1,3)x(1,1,1)12, and (1,1,3)x(1,1,1)12. Using the R software, they chose the SARIMA(2,1,2)x(1,1,1)12 model as the best on the basis of Akaike information criterion, AIC. The result in this work is different: the SARIMA(2,1,1)x(1,1,1)12 model is herein adjudged as the best on the same minimum AIC grounds.

Keywords:

Dengue, SARIMA, Time series analysis, Statistics, seasonal series, Eviews, AIC

Published

2014-09-15

How to Cite

Etuk, E. H. ., & Ojekudo, N. . (2014). Another Look at the Sarima Modelling of the Number of Dengue Cases in Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. International Journal of Natural Sciences Research, 2(9), 156–164. Retrieved from https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/63/article/view/2327

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 9 (2014)

Section

Articles