Another Look at the Sarima Modelling of the Number of Dengue Cases in Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Authors

  • Ette Harrison Etuk Department of Mathematics/Computer Science Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt, Nigeria
  • Nathaniel Ojekudo Department of Computer Science, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Keywords:

Dengue, SARIMA, Time series analysis, Statistics, seasonal series, Eviews, AIC

Abstract

Martinez, et al. [1] analysed monthly numbers of dengue cases as reported in Campinas, southeast Brazil from 1998 to 2008, by SARIMA methods. Assuming X is the original series, they analysed the logarithm of X + 1. The models they proposed and compared are of orders (2,1,2)x(1,1,1)12, (2,1,1)x(1,1,1)12, (1,1,2)x(1,1,1)12, (1,1,1)x(1,1,1)12, (2,1,3)x(1,1,1)12, and (1,1,3)x(1,1,1)12. Using the R software, they chose the SARIMA(2,1,2)x(1,1,1)12 model as the best on the basis of Akaike information criterion, AIC. The result in this work is different: the SARIMA(2,1,1)x(1,1,1)12 model is herein adjudged as the best on the same minimum AIC grounds.

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Published

2014-09-15

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 9 (2014)

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Another Look at the Sarima Modelling of the Number of Dengue Cases in Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. (2014). International Journal of Natural Sciences Research, 2(9), 156-164. https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/63/article/view/2327