https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/88 Conscientia Beam en-US Quarterly Journal of Econometrics Research 2518-2536 https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/88/article/view/2931 <p>The trend analysis and GARCH model for COVID-19 pandemic spread between FCT/Lagos and the National Weekly confirmed pandemic cases were carried out using the statistical software Minitab17 and Gretl. Four models trend behavior were considered, which are linear, quadratic, cubic and quartic trends with respect to R-square value, Adjusted R-square value, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) p-value and the estimated coefficients p-values. In addition, GARCH(0,1),GARCH(1,0) and GARCH(1,1) models were built separately for both FCT/Lagos on the Nigeria National Weekly confirmed pandemic cases; to determine which model has best fit for predicting weekly confirmed cases of COVID-19 pandemic in those areas. The four common information criteria was used to selected the best model, which are the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Schwarz-Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Hannan-Quinn Information Criteria (HQC) and Likelihood Criteria (LKH).This study established the quadratic trend and GARCH(1,0) as the best model that describes the data sets for FCT. Hence, both models can be used to forecasts the weekly pandemic confirmed cases in these areas.</p> Lawal O O Nwakuya M T Biu O E Copyright (c) 2022 2022-02-24 2022-02-24 8 1 1 10 10.18488/88.v8i1.2931 https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/88/article/view/3222 <p>One of the most important risks of today's financial markets is credit risk. Credit risk is very important for investors investing in international markets, and therefore it is vital to manage credit risk correctly. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are at the forefront of the most important financial products that ensure the elimination of credit risk. In this study, the relationship between 5-Year Turkey CDS premium, which is an important indicator for investors, Turkish Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 Index, USDTRY foreign exchange rates and 2-Year Turkish benchmark bonds interest rates are examined. For this purpose, econometric analysis was applied using CDS premium, BIST 100 index, USDTRY and 2-Year Turkish benchmark bonds interest rate data, which consists of 2921 daily observations from 10 March 2010 to 08 March 2022. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron root tests are used to determine the stationarity of the variables. Then, the Granger Causality test, Impulse-Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis are used. According to the results of the study; a bilateral causality relationship was determined between CDS premiums and BIST 100 index, USDTRY exchange rate and benchmark bond interest rates. According to the Impulse-Response functions analysis, a 1% increase in CDS premium prices increases the USDTRY rate and benchmark bond interest rates, while lowering the BIST 100 index.</p> Hakan Oner Selma Oner Copyright (c) 2022 2022-12-07 2022-12-07 8 1 11 22 10.18488/88.v8i1.3222