The Simulation of Egg Hatching Trend of Aedes Aegypti Associated with Rainfall Distribution

Abstract

Aedes aegypti is primary vector of Zika virus, dengue, and chikungunya which go through four different stages of life cycle: Egg, Larva, Pupa, and Adult. The mosquito might be able to lay 100 eggs at a time. The eggs can hatch when there is water and submerged in the water, but it can survive without water almost to 8 months by sticking to the walls of a container. In this research, the trend of egg hatching was simulated by using a stage-structured Lefkovitch matrix model. The matrix model consists of a function of egg hatching which associated and depends on rainfall distribution. The purpose of the function is to identify the relationship between egg hatching and rainfall which provide water to egg. Using the same mathematical model, the population of adult Aedes aegypti has also simulated which the population related to egg simulation and rainfall. The graphical results were shown to illustrate the relationship between the rainfall, egg number and adult Aedes aegypti. We found that there was a significant relationship between the rainfall and these two stages of mosquito life cycle which are egg hatching number and adult Aedes aegypti. However, it is recommended to look for more possible factors such as the size of an opening container and humidity which possible to contribute to the development of mosquito to acquire more accurate results.