Post-COVID-19 structure of international trade and its impact on sustainable development in Arab countries

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of post-COVID-19 structure of international trade on multiple aspects of sustainable development in selected Arab countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Morocco, Egypt, Kuwait and Tunisia) over the period 2014-2024. To achieve the purpose of the study, we employed the fixed-effects panel EGLS and the dummy interaction approach to estimate some equations where it used GDP pair capita, unemployment rate and CO2 emissions as indicators of the economic, social and environmental aspects of sustainable development. The results showed that post the pandemic, trade in manufactured products had positive impact on GDP per capita and deteriorating positive impact on unemployment, while the impact on CO2 emissions has reversed and became negative. On another front, post the pandemic, trade in fuels and mining products had slightly promoted its positive impact on GDP per capita, but no statistically significant impacts on unemployment or CO2 emissions were observed. Concerning trade in agricultural products, the negative impact of GDP per capita has declined post the pandemic, lost its statistical significance on unemployment, and had negative impact on CO2 emissions. To boost socio-economic and environmental gains of international trade in Arab countries, the study recommends restructuring exports towards high value-added products and focusing more on agricultural manufacturing to increase its share of the GDP and to create sustainable job opportunities, as well as promoting investment in green sectors to foster the path of sustainable development.