Unraveling the impact of perceived policy opacity and volatility on tour guides' return intentions: An extended TPB analysis in post-pandemic Suzhou

Abstract

The severe shortage of foreign tour guides currently impedes the full recovery of inbound tourism in Suzhou. This study aims to explore the underlying mechanisms by which insecurity, caused by high Policy Opacity and Risk Volatility (PROP-V), influences guide return intentions. Utilizing a multi-language questionnaire based on semi-structured interviews, this research employed a Stratified Quota Sampling method considering pre-pandemic service experience, professional qualifications, and return intentions. A total of 552 tour guides working in Suzhou participated in the survey. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) validated an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model incorporating PROP-V. The findings reveal that PROP-V experienced the largest negative influence on Subjective Norms (SN) (β = -0.552). This erosion of social normative pressure subsequently led to diminished attitudes and perceived behavioral control, resulting in a significant decrease in return intentions. Practically, these results provide a theoretical justification for the extended TPB model in crisis contexts. The study suggests that, for China's post-COVID-19 inbound tourism workforce restoration, policymakers must prioritize transparency to rebuild the "social contract" and professional confidence, rather than relying solely on economic incentives.