The dynamics of urban growth rate on carbon footprints in the SADC

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of urban growth rates on per capita carbon emissions across 13 member countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), by examining urban growth dynamics with data from 2002 to 2022. Urban growth rate is captured through three separate indicators: urban growth, the urban-to-rural population growth ratio, and the urban-to-total population growth ratio. Data analysis was conducted employing the Panel Estimated Generalised Least Squares (EGLS) method, specifically the cross-sectionally seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method. The results from the empirical analysis showed that all three urban growth rate proxies exert negligible influence on carbon emissions per capita, suggesting that urban expansion within the SADC region has not substantially contributed to increased carbon emissions over the years examined. Therefore, given the continuing rise in urban populations across Southern Africa and the accompanying escalation in carbon footprints, institutional and managerial policies promoting environmentally sustainable production to lower carbon emissions per head may not need to account for specific urban growth dynamics such as those examined in this study. However, accounting for specific urbanisation characteristics should be based on preference and what might be fundamental and material to an organisation or institution, provided cost does not outweigh the benefit.