Forecasting Production and Export of Thailand’s Durian Fruit: An Empirical Study using the Box–Jenkins Approach

Abstract

This research aims to forecast the production and export of Thailand’s durian fruit using the Box–Jenkins procedure. The export of Thailand’s durian focuses on the Chinese market and the world market. The monthly time series from January 2005 to June 2020 is modeled using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). The empirical results revealed that the models of SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12, and SARIMA(4,1,1)(0,1,0)12 were selected as the most suitable models to forecast the durian production of Thailand, durian export to the Chinese market, and durian export to the world market, respectively. The findings indicated that the durian production of Thailand will increase by 2.419% in the second half of 2020, and by 13.480% in 2021. This is in line with the forecasts for durian exports to the Chinese and world markets that predict growth in the second half of 2020 by 43.398% and 0.542%, respectively, and in 2021 by 31.299% and 6.023%, respectively.